The bad news for America and the rest of the West is that this time, China seems far more prepared and up for the fight. On the one side, a chaotic US administration veering sharply from one policy to another. On the other hand, a government that is too strong for its own good.
China appeared unsure of how to respond to the unconventional new president of the United States and his use of tariffs during Trump’s first term. Its diplomats’ rhetoric this time is far more blunt and defiant; “We are ready for you,” they seem to be saying, “and are up for the fight”.
China and the United States have a long history of confrontation as well as dependence. Back in the ’90s, China was allowed to trade on favorable terms. The West held the belief that “they would become more democratic too” if they became wealthy like us. It was a foolish assumption. China remained authoritarian and was ruthless too, using piracy, reverse engineering and all-out theft of technology to catch up with the West. But it didn’t seem like the West cared. Everyone was becoming more wealthy.
While America bought cheaply and kept its own cost of living low, China was producing the world’s goods and lifting millions of its people out of poverty. Fast-forward a few decades, and the two giants are still closely entwined as trading partners, but the rancour between them has grown. First under Trump and then under Biden, the US began seeing the error of being too generous to China.
Under each president, the United States has attempted to rectify what it perceives as a trading relationship that favors Beijing. Chinese objections are different. They are most upset about America’s position as the strongest power in the world.
They believe that the liberal world order has outlived its usefulness and was created by and for the United States. It sees this crisis as a chance to change all that. Additionally, it has been preparing.
China portrays itself as a stable and predictable alternative to America as a global power. The first three months of Donald Trump’s second term are only making things better.
This is the pitch to other nations: Are you looking for a new partner who will provide economic stability, equality, and no awkward human rights lectures? Contact Beijing instead of America.
There are huge downsides, of course, if America is supplanted by China and the world is refashioned in its image.
Ask the people of Hong Kong, whose liberties have been systematically violated, the Uyghurs of Xinjiang, who are believed to have been the victims of a genocide, or the Taiwanese, who are currently the target of extensive bullying from Beijing.
But America has been busy destroying its sales pitch too, no longer a paragon of stability, good government or rational policy making.
Donald Trump will be fighting a foe who is prepared and determined in any prolonged trade war. I
t has moved a lot of its industry to other countries to avoid tariffs and built a huge trade war chest in the form of its sovereign wealth fund, which it used this week to keep stock markets from going down.
