Labour hit the panic button today as a poll suggested Boris Johnson is on track to secure a majority of 68 in the general election.
Jeremy Corbyn was left desperately scrambling to change tactics after a huge YouGov analysis revealed Northern voters have been abandoning him in droves.
The study suggested the Tories could smash Labour’s ‘red wall’ of traditional stronghold to win 359 seats out of 650 – up from 317 in the 2017 election and a comfortable 68 majority.
Mr Corbyn was found to secure just 211 seats, down from 262 two years ago – and only just above the historic disaster of 209 when the party was led by his left-wing hero Michael Foot.
Labour insiders admitted they had underestimated the willingness of Leave voters to switch to the Conservatives, and Mr Corbyn’s muddled stance – pledging to negotiate a new deal with the EU but then stay ‘neutral’ on it in a second referendum – was a real problem.
But Tories are also alarmed that the scale of the victory implied by the poll could be counterproductive with a fortnight still to go in the campaign – with fears wavering voters either will not turn out or back Labour assuming they cannot win.
Mr Johnson’s Brexit mastermind Dominic Cummings warned that the contest on December 12 was might ‘tighter’ than it looks.
Extraordinary, shadow trade secretary Barry Gardiner this morning suggested Labour’s strategy was to hope that Tory supporters will not bother voting.
‘For those who were thinking of voting Conservative, I hope this poll gives them great comfort, they sit back they say ”I don’t need to go out and vote on polling day because it’s wet and it’s windy”,’ he told Sky News.
A separate – much smaller – survey for ComRes found the Conservative advantage had narrowed to seven points.
The YouGov research is closely watched because it accurately predicted in 2017 that former Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority – the only one to do so.
The YouGov ‘MRP’ analysis released this evening showed Mr Johnson’s Conservative Party could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in the 2017 general election
If the election took place on Thursday the modelling predicts the following voting intention estimates
The estimated swing from 2017 showing a large Tory increase and significant decrease for the Labour party
The YouGov ‘MRP’ analysis released yesterday evening showed Mr Johnson’s Conservative Party could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in the 2017 general election
The YouGov analysis is based on a huge 100,000 sample. Unlike other techniques, it maps the results against profiles of each constituency to estimate how the parties are faring in each area.
Although it is far from certain, experts believe it is one of the best ways of estimating how an actual election would play out.
The Liberal Democrats on 13 seats, are only up one from the last election, despite a predicted increase in vote share from 8 per cent in 2017 to 14 per cent.
Those standing as independents such as Anna Soubry, David Gauke, Gavin Shuker, Frank Field and Dominic Grieve, are also set to lose out.
In Scotland, the SNP are set to get 43 seats, an increase of 8, but vitally for Mr Johnson only two come from his party.
If the election had been held yesterday, Wales’ Plaid Cymru and the Green Party would remain static with four seats and one seat respectively.
The modelling shows Mr Johnson would comfortably keep hold of his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat, but that Zac Goldsmith could be on course to lose Richmond Park.
The analysis shows that most of the seats changing are ones that Labour won in 2017 – but could now be taken by the Tories.
The Conservative’s would have picked up Tom Watson’s vacated seat and Caroline Flint’s Don Valley seat.
They could also have claimed Tony Blair’s previous Sedgefield seat and Norman Lamb’s seat in North Norfolk.
Of the 76 Labour-held seats where they lead the Tories by fewer than 8,000 votes, Mr Corbyn’s party is behind in 43 of them, according to the analysis.
As the party reeled from the poll today, there were claims its campaign is being shifted, particularly in Leave-voting areas.
Labour insiders told the BBC a key mistake had been overestimating the electoral threat from the Liberal Democrats, and underestimating the likelihood of Leave voters switching to the Conservatives.
Labour’s strategy so far had been – in part – to emphasise that the election is about more than Brexit and to get voters to focus on issues which would unite Labour voters in Leave and Remain areas.
The new plan is designed to appeal to those who voted for Brexit, and to try to convince them that Labour is not attempting to stop Brexit by offering another referendum.
Shadow cabinet members who back a Leave deal rather than Remain will have a higher profile in the final two weeks of the campaign.
Mr Corbyn and party chairman Ian Lavery, who favours leaving the EU with a deal, will tour Leave areas to try to explain the deal Labour wants to negotiate and emphasise that they will protect workers’ rights.
A Tory candidate defending a Northern seat that used to be a marginal told MailOnline they currently expected to have more than 55 per cent of the vote.
‘Labour are in deep do-do in the North,’ they said.
If the election was held on Thursday, the Tories would return to parliament with a significant majority according to YouGov analysis
The Labour Party looks on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262 in the 2017 election
The model currently shows none of the MPs who have defected to the Lib Dems in recent months winning the seats in which they are standing.
Among the defectors from the Conservatives, Sarah Wollaston is 19 points behind in Totnes, Antoinette Sandbach is trailing by 33 points in Eddisbury, Philip Lee is down by 10 points in Wokingham, and Sam Gyimah is 8 points adrift in Kensington.
The three Labour defectors are also struggling. Chuka Umunna is 13 points behind in Cities of London and Westminster, Luciana Berger is 18 points back in Finchley and Golders Green, and Angela Smith is trailing by 33 points in Altrincham and Sale West.
The pound rose sharply on news of Boris Johnson’s predicted majority.
The Liberal Democrats on 13 seats, are only up one from the last election, despite a predicted increase in vote share from 8 per cent in 2017 to 14 per cent
However it is worth noting that there could be local elements in play in these seats, which the model might not be picking up.
The margins of error in the model put the Conservatives seat projection between 328 and 385, YouGov said, adding that there was still more than sufficient time for people to change their minds before Dec. 12 – the first Christmas election in nearly a century.
In a blog, Mr Cummings has warned the election is ‘much tighter’ than the polls suggested – saying there is a ‘very real possibility of a hung parliament’.
Boris Johnson’s Brexit mastermind said Jeremy Corbyn was plotting to ‘cheat’ a second referendum by handing votes to millions of foreign nationals.
If Mr Johnson does not secure a majority, Mr Corbyn would enter No 10 ‘propped up’ by the SNP‘s Nicola Sturgeon and the two leaders would then ‘rig’ a second referendum, he added.
As well as allowing ‘millions of foreign votes’, Mr Cummings said Mr Corbyn would draw up a referendum question that amounted to ‘Remain vs Remain’.
Mr Cummings resigned as a No10 special adviser at the start of the election campaign, but could be reapointed if Mr Johnson wins.
Chris Curtis, political research manager for the pollster, said: ‘YouGov’s official election MRP model currently shows the Tories with a comfortable majority with almost all of those coming at the expense of Labour in the North and Midlands.
‘As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour are how that seat voted in the European Union referendum.
‘In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 (60 per cent or more in favour of departing the EU), the swing to the Conservatives is over 6 per cent.
‘This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities in places like West Bromwich East, the seat held until recently by Tom Watson, and Don Valley, the seat currently held by Caroline Flint.
‘The only silver lining for Labour is that there are still 30 seats where it is currently 5% or less behind the Tories. If it can manage to squeeze the gap over the coming fortnight it may be able to paste over the cracks in their so-called Red Wall.
‘But with just two weeks to go, time is running out for Labour.’
