Boris Johnson’s predicted Commons majority has been slashed in half in just a week suggesting the Tories could be en route to a a hung parliament, a new poll has revealed.
BMG questioned 1,663 voters between 27 and 29 November and discovered the closing gap is rapidly putting the Conservatives into the territory of a ‘hung parliament’ come December 12.
Labour is also taking from the Lib Dems by gaining Remain voters who see the party as the better prospect to block Mr Johnson’s plan for a quick Brexit.
The Independent poll, also puts the Tories just six points ahead of Labour.
Boris Johnson’s predicted Commons majority has been slashed in half in less than a week
The latest poll from BMG suggests that the Tory majority has halved in just over a week. The suggested loss of 44 seats puts the Conservatives five points below the 326 seats they would need for a majority in Parliament
Dominic Cummings can be seen today as he arrives at the Conservative Party headquarters, in London. Cummings warned Brexiteers today that the election would be ‘tighter than it looks’
Experts believe this is the minimum lead Boris Johnson will need to gain a comfortable majority in order to push through Brexit in January.
In addition to Tory losses, Labour have eaten into their majority, gaining five points since last week.
The Liberal Democrats have plummeted five points, the Brexit party hold steady on four per cent and the Greens hold five.
Another poll, taken from figures obtained on November 26, suggested that the Tory lead had been slashed from 80 to just 12 in less than a week, however, today’s revelation suggest it could be worse.
BMG director, Robert Struthers, told the Independent: ‘The shifts we have witnessed in our headline voting intention figures take the Conservative lead from a likely majority into possible hung parliament territory,’
The polling expert added that the outcome of the election depends on how many people Corbyn can draw from the Green party and the Liberal Democrats.
‘If this trend continues, this election could be much closer than it looked just a matter of weeks ago,’ he added.
Mr Struthers said that an increasing number of Labour voters were coming back to the party. A week ago, 67 per cent of previous Labour voters said they would back the party on December 12, increasing to 73 per cent today.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, an election website, said that the stalling in the Tory vote could explain why Mr Johnson used a speech yesterday to appeal to working-class Brexit votes with pledges on immigration and state aid to protect jobs.
Mr Baxter told The Telegraph: ‘He is going out for a working class Brexit demographic with the calculation that there are still some votes in the Brexit Party and Leave votes in the Conservative Party.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in the studio before the start of the Channel 4 News’ General Election climate debate at ITN Studios on Thursday
A new general election poll conducted by Panelbase puts the Tories on 42 per cent and Labour on 34 per cent
‘Meanwhile, Labour are continuing gradually to squeeze the Lib Dems and the Greens.’
A graph comparing support for Mrs May during the 2017 campaign with Mr Johnson’s shows him below her at the same point in the campaign with polling suggesting he is on a downward run.
It contrasts sharply with this week’s YouGov constituency by constituency poll, which suggested the Conservatives were set to secure a 68-seat majority.
It comes after Boris Johnson and the Tories’ general election poll lead over Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party has narrowed to eight points, according to a separate survey yesterday.
A poll conducted by Panelbase between November 27-28 puts the Tories on 42 per cent.
That is the same rating as the party received in the company’s poll carried out last week between November 20-22.
But while the Conservative Party has stayed the same, Labour has enjoyed a slight increase to 34 per cent – a rise of two points.
That means the Tory lead over Labour is now in single digits with polling day on December 12 now less than two weeks away.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are on 13 per cent in the new poll, down one per cent on last week, and the Brexit Party is on four per cent, up one per cent.
In the seats where Nigel Farage’s party is standing candidates it has a poll rating of eight per cent.
The Green Party is in fifth place on three per cent – an increase of one per cent.
The Panelbase poll comes after a YouGov survey published earlier this week sent a shockwave through the election campaign.
It suggested the Tories are on course to win a 68 seat majority on polling day.
The major piece of analysis suggested Mr Johnson could end up with 359 seats while Mr Corbyn could sink to just 211.
That would only be two seats better than the low watermark recorded by Labour at the 1983 general election.
The YouGov survey suggested that Labour’s ‘red wall’ of seats in the Midlands and the north of England was ‘crumbling’ with the Tories set to pick up 44 seats in those areas.
The survey prompted the Labour Party to rethink its election strategy and it is now expected to spend the next two weeks focusing more time on shoring up support in its Leave-backing heartlands.
